Silver:
The new gold?
You may not have noticed,
but things have gone absolutely crazy
in the precious metals market lately.
When I used to see those commercials
exhorting a substantial investment
in gold and silver, I used to see it
as just another late night infomercial
for overpriced products.
That
may be the case, but there is definitely
a grain of truth to the claims of
rising prices in the precious metals
market. In February this year, silver
reached its highest price in 22 years.
Not since the run up in silver in
the 1980's had we seen prices above
$10 per ounce. Looking back, $10
seems downright cheap!
On
Wednesday, April 12, silver closed
at $12.67 per ounce. Silver has gone
up 20% just in the past month, and
is up more than 33% since the beginning
of the year. Prices almost doubled
in less than nine months.
So
what's a bead store guy doing writing
about the precious metals commodity
market? The answer is simple: silver
beads and findings. So much of what
we use in the making of fun beading
projects relies on silver. Silver
clasps, silver crimp beads, silver
wire, silver pendant centerpieces,
silver spacer beads... Well, you
get the picture. As the silver market
goes, so go prices at your local
bead shop and silver jewelry store.
So
what is driving prices up so dramatically?
The current run-up is in anticipation
of approval by the SEC (Securities
and Exchange Commission) of Barclays
Global Investor ETF Fund. At present,
silver in the US is sold only in
its physical form. When you buy and
sell silver, you are literally buying
an ounce of silver. Gold on the other
hand is traded both physically and
as Exchange-traded funds. In an ETF,
the owner of the commodity doesn't
take physical possession, but rather
buys and sells certificates redeemable
for a specific amount of the commodity.
In
2005, the SEC approved gold ETF's,
which helped gold trade at a 25 year
high. With the approval of an ETF
for silver, the demand for silver
will increase dramatically, which
many people believe will lead to
a further spike in price. According
to well-respected silver analyst
Ted Butler, whether the ETF is approved
or not, silver will continue to rise
in price.
Last
week, Barclay's Bank received preliminary
approval from a key Security and
Exchange Commission advisory committee
that sent silver to new highs...
yet again. To see the run up in silver
prices, click here
an illustrative chart. Be sure to
check the bottom of the page showing
the one month, six month and one
year graphs for silver.
Recent
price increases have many people
in the silver jewelry industry reeling.
The suddenness and unprecedented
magnitude of the increase has created
waves of panic among silver jewelry
manufacturers and cast much uncertainty
into the ordering process for wholesalers
world wide.
Many
have adopted a "wait and see"
attitude that has them kicking themselves
for not buying when prices were at
$10 per ounce. For those who have
waited, the price rise has been the
source of ever more uncertainty.
Will the silver price continue to
rise, or will it top out and decline?
Orders I placed in January were locked
in, since they were prepaid, but
new orders will be at these new prices.
Here
is an example of how crazy it has
been. I called my supplier in India
on a Tuesday to order silver beads
for our silver trunk show. He sent
me an invoice the next day for payment.
I sent the money the following day,
which he received on Friday. Between
when I got the invoice and when he
received the transfer, the cost of
my silver beads had increased 12%!
All
is not gloom and doom, however. The
arrival of the ETF (discussed in
the last newsletter as a primary
motivator in the current price rise)
may actually send prices lower. According
to Tim Evans of IRF Markets, "the
introduction of commodity-oriented
ETF's 'quite often occurs at market
tops." The old adage "buy
on the rumor, sell on the news"
may be applicable here, as many speculators
may well pull out once the ETF is
approved. That might usher back the
"good old days" of March
when the cost of an ounce was "just"
$10.
For an interesting
article published April 7, 2006 by MarketWatch, click here.
What does this
mean for the lowly purveyor of silver merchandise, and more importantly
for that person's customers? It means inevitably, higher prices.
We have held the prices as long as we could, and we will only increase
them slightly in comparison with market rises, but go up they must.
After our Silver Trunk Sale we will be increasing our price on silver
and gold vermeil beads by about 20%. You will see other slight increases
across the board over time with items like silver findings and silver
jewelry. If there is a price decrease below January 1, 2006 levels,
you can bet we will be right back to our old prices.
Website:
Please visit our website for
locations, class info and upcoming promotions. In March we will be
offering a promotion with our classes.
Sign up for a class and bring a friend for free. Space is limited,
so don't delay if classes are of interest to you.
Silver
Trunk Show:
We
will be showcasing over $25,000 worth of silver beads in our Silver
Trunk Show from April 14 to April 23. The show will take place at
both the Kapaa store and the Kukui Grove Shopping Center location.
Please note that Kukui Grove will be closed on Sunday, April 16, in
observance of the Easter Holiday.
The
show will feature a huge selection
of silver beads and clasps brought
in special just for this show. After
the show, our silver bead price will
increase from $1.25 to $1.50 per
gram. Hill Tribe and vermeil
will also increase incrementally.
Take advantage of this fantastic
display of silver beads and findings
direct from India and stock up before
the price increase.
Please let me
know if you have any thoughts or suggestions on what we can do to
improve. We are always open to new ideas and constructive criticism.
Aloha,
Mike McGinnis
Divine Planet
821-1835 Kapaa
246-3535 Lihue
http://divine-planet.com
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